Nigeria’s economic outlook is set for a significant boost in 2026 as reforms introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration begin to yield measurable results, according to a leading policy think tank.
The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has projected that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could grow by as much as 5.5 percent in 2026, outperforming current forecasts by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI attributed the optimistic projection to the new economic framework adopted by the Tinubu administration. The group noted that the government’s reform-driven approach is reshaping Nigeria’s economic fundamentals and strengthening confidence among both local and international stakeholders.
IMPI highlighted that growth expectations for 2026 vary across institutions but remain broadly positive. While the Federal Government has projected a 4.68 percent growth rate, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) anticipates a much stronger 7 percent expansion. This estimate exceeds the 5.5 percent forecast by the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG).
According to the think tank, the convergence of these projections reflects a growing consensus that Nigeria is entering a new economic phase focused on productivity and sustainable growth. IMPI pointed to key drivers of this emerging paradigm, including increased domestic production, improved productivity, foreign exchange stability, gradual disinflation, and renewed momentum in foreign direct investment inflows.
The policy group also emphasized the role of a more business-friendly regulatory environment, noting that reforms aimed at reducing bottlenecks and encouraging private sector participation are critical to sustaining long-term economic expansion.
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IMPI concluded that the combination of policy-led economic facilitation, investor confidence, and macroeconomic stabilization positions Nigeria for stronger GDP performance in 2026 and beyond.